Long arms FSB?

Publikacja w serwisie: 10 May 2010
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[based on piotrjakucki.salon24.pl]

A Smell of Liquidation” – this is how the Israeli paper „Maariv” comments on the plane crash near Smolensk, in which Lech Kaczynski and his wife died, and with them key figures holding functional and security positions in the state, including commanders of all kinds of armed forces.

The Romanian portal “Global News” also points to the event as a possible assassination and –

quoting its own sources in NATO’s security structures – declares Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) to be the direct authors of this tragedy. Wiktor Suworow, a former agent of GRU (Russian military intelligence) does not rule out that it may have been an assassination. He points out that the Russian services took the black boxes out of the wreckage immediately after the crash, as if the Russians were trying to hide something.

Reading the recording of the black boxes found at the crash site could be of key importance to the investigation, as it would allow to reconstruct the events aboard minute by minute.

However, being decoded by the Russians and thus very likely to be falsified, these recordings might not be too credible. Instead of casting light on the causes of the Smolensk tragedy, they may bring even more information chaos (one of the main weapons used by KGB). We have already had a sample of it when Russian media published a false conversation between the plane’s crew and the Smolensk air traffic controller, which had supposedly taken place before the crash. The “conversation” was to have come from Russian government sources after the black box had been opened.

Polish-Polish War

Air crashes are always investigated with regard to the possibility of third party involvement. In this case, the assassination hypothesis was rejected straight away, as if not enough had happened: both the Polish President and chief military commanders, the core of Polish Army, were dead.

Polish media, except “Radio Maryja”, “Nasz Dziennik” and “Gazeta Polska”, found nothing unusual about it. The number one topics for the mainstream journalists were Putin’s caresses (the famous “conciliatory” hug) and Andrzej Wajda’s letter in which he objected to the burial of the Presidential Couple on the Wawel Hill (which was clearly a red herring).

Maybe it is not accidental at all that this Polish-Polish war was created (using slogans like “Wawel only for kings”), in order to divert mob’s attention from the fact that the reports from Smolensk did not fully tie up – for example the number of landing attempts: four were reported at first by the Russian Wiesti-24 channel, then two and finally one.

Ubijaj tuda !” (“Kill here!”)

The Russians working at the Smolensk airport were immediately trying to blame the pilots for the crash. The Russian side maintains that they had ignored the suggestions from the control tower not to land in Smolensk but to fly to Minsk or Moscow.  However, according to unofficial information (published in „Nasz Dziennik” for example), the pilot had received incorrect flight parameters from the tower and was flying lower than he had thought. The Tu-154M was dropping too fast and it was too late to pull it up again. The Russians, however, tried to suggest that the pilots had not known Russian and that the President had been pressuring them to land the Tupolev regardless of the weather conditions (the Russians claimed there had been thick fog). These accusations are not only groundless but also insulting to the Polish side, who, however, has chosen to shield themselves with the so-called Polish-Russian re-approachment rather than react to these affronts. And most of all – failing to do everything possible to explain this both unprecedented and mysterious crash.

Let’s imagine that a plane carrying the German president has crashed on Polish territory.

After a couple of hours, the German services would appear and take over the investigation. The Polish Prime Minister did not send the country’s special forces (“Grom”) unit to Smolensk, to secure the crash site at the very least. Neither did he propose that an international commission be held to investigate the causes and course of the crash. Prime Minister Tusk’s government agreed that the Russians should lead the investigation and then share their findings with the Polish military prosecution. The government did not protest against transportation of the bodies of Polish citizens to Moscow without supervision of Polish representatives, and allow for their examination under Russian leadership. It is also surprising that the parts of the crashed presidential plane have not yet been transported to a Polish examination center for analysis by an international commission.

Poland made an irresponsible decision to fully rely on the Russian side. It would seem striking, given that new questions are popping up one by one, like for example reports from witnesses contradicting the story that the President’s plane had landed in extreme weather conditions. This can be proved by a short amateur clip, made right after the crash and available on the Internet, in which you can hardly see any fog. In spite of the poor quality, the crash site and what had remained of the plane is clearly visible.

You can also hear shots and a command in Russian “ubijaj tuda” (“kill here”), which is particularly striking with regard to the information announced right after the crash that three passengers had survived it. Where could such information come from? If true, what happened to those three persons?

If the film was proved to be authentic, would it not provide the answer why Jaroslaw Kaczynski was able to recognize his brother Lech’s body, while the body of his wife Maria was only identified by her characteristic ring? Does that mean that her body was massacred? That would be strange because the two had been sitting together, as far as was known. And finally, why did the Russians not call ambulances to the site, which is routine in such cases? Did anyone assume that everyone had certainly died? If so, on what basis? Maybe witnesses were simply not welcome? Just like the journalists who were not allowed at the crash site or had their cameras confiscated? Maybe just because we were never to find out what had happened to the pilots’ bodies, which have not been found yet, although the cockpit was in one piece.

And why can no one see the actual plane in the crash photos, but only a minor part of the huge machine, weighing more than 50 tons?

What had happened to the fuselage? Given that the plane had had a landing velocity and had fallen from a low altitude of 20 m after hitting tree-tops, why was the plane’s wreck not in one piece?

Russians used EMP?

CNN stressed the fact that the plane had been flying too low (it might indicate problems with control instruments) and  falling (no adequate engine power), which was confirmed by eye-witnesses.

What could have been the reason, if the initial claim by the Russians about the plane’s poor technical condition had not been confirmed?

Can one rule out the possibility that the plane’s meters and other electronic navigational devices were  subjected to high-intensity electromagnetic fields during landing? Such fields might have changed the indications of the navigational devices and consequently cause a pilot error.

The Polish Association of Engineers demands that this mystery be explained by Polish authorities, as well as others related to the tragedy in Smolensk (like a possibility of creating artificial fog).

Not without a reason, because the the plane may have been caused to fall by the weapon called EMP (electromagnetic pulse), capable of disruption or destruction of electronic equipment within reach of the generator.

According to the “Pravda” paper, in 2008 Russians demonstrated that EMP caused the same effects as thunders or nuclear explosions. The weapon, called Nike, was first presented in Yekaterinburg.

According to the Romanian portal Global News, Russians were to experiment with EMP in the military base within the Smolensk airport. Quoting Polish military sources the portal claims that EMP can indeed cause disruption of electronic devices and engines in all types of planes. It is, however, very difficult to detect the cause, as the application time of the electromagnetic beam is rather short.

EMP in not a new weapon – Americans have had it since the 60’s. What makes Nike distinctive is the small size and much shorter yet more powerful electromagnetic impulses, with the power reaching billions of watts – as pointed out by Giennadij Mesyats, vice President of the Russian Academy of Science and director of the Lebedev Physics Institute.

Tupolew blocked

Even if it turned out that Russians had not used the EMP, the plane could have been destroyed in some other way. Ryszard Drozdowicz from the Aerodynamics Laboratory at Szczecin Polytechnic University suggests that the “pilot error” alleged by the media is of little probability.

No such maneuvers as strong turns or sudden changes of velocity are performed during the approach. The witnesses, however, did notice a strong turn. The pilot had been additionally circling over the airport to make sure about the landing conditions and – based on that – made the right decision to land.

It is also improbable for an experienced pilot, assisted by the second pilot, to make a joint mistake while visually assessing the altitude, even if the instruments broke down (which is improbable as well).

One has to note that fog usually has clearances and as such should not present an obstacle to visual assessment of landing conditions in daylight.

The circumstances point out instead to a serious damage or intentional blockade in the flight control system. Such a blockade can be so mounted that it gets activated at lowering the gear or the wing flaps when a plane is heading straight right before landing.  If the flaps or ailerons had been blocked then, the crash was inevitable, because the pilot was unable to  level the heavy plane flying strongly askew at an altitude of 50-100 m and with velocity of nearly 260 km/h, even by a sudden increase of the pull”.

More questions than answers

The American daily „USA Today” remarks that the presidential Tupolew had been equipped with the TAWS system, which warns the pilots when the plane approaches the earth too quickly. Due to this very fact the fall and explosion of the plane carrying Lech Kaczynski look even more mysterious. The assumption that the machine had not been subjected to any external action and the crash was brought about by a pilot error sounds doubtful, confronted with the findings by “USA Today”.

The TAWS system, which contains computer maps of the world, warns the pilots of too close proximity to obstacles like radio towers, chimneys or terrain irregularities. For five years it has been mounted in  all newly produced airplanes for commercial airlines. If a plane’s altitude is too low, it reacts with a loud sound signal. The presidential plane Tu-154M is known to have had such a system and the fact that it crashed poses more questions than answers, says John Cox, security consultant and accident expert.

I would really like to know what was happening aboard because the pilots would never have ignored a warning from TAWS (and no others would either), no matter the pressure or weather conditions they were dealing with. How was this plane different that it happened otherwise?”, asks Cox.

The question is all the more justified because it is the TAWS system which has helped eliminate air crashes during landing. No plane with this system aboard has crashed since the end of the 90’s, when TAWS began to be mounted in old and new machines. It had been so until April 10, 2010, when the Tu-154 with Lech Kaczynski and Polish delegation aboard crashed. No wonder that John Hamby, spokesman of Universal Avionics Systems of Tucson (TAWS manufacturer) also remarked about the crash of the presidential plane as being quite mysterious.

Russians eavesdropping?

Another question arises which we cannot answer: did Polish special forces ever investigate, apart from monitoring, whether the governmental Tupolevs had been wire-tapped and the Russians could have received signals from their on-board electronics?

This could mean that the most important persons have been monitored by Putin’s services for the last 20 years.

Speaking of the Polish services, equally interesting is the fact that the President and the whole military leadership had all boarded the same plane.

Especially that after the accident on 23 January, 2008, involving a military plane Casa with higher ranking flight officers, a security requirement was introduced that military commanders should fly separately. Here, the generals had been flying with the President, who was not only the head of the state but also the chief of the armed forces – a person wholly responsible for the country’s security. The question remains why the President had decided in the last minute to travel by plane and given up his initial plan to go by train. He would have traveled together with the relatives of those buried in Katyn to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the mass murder. The option to go by train had been taken into account, as stressed by minister Wladyslaw Stasiak, among others. Did anyone make the President change his plans, and if so, who? Anna Pietraszek, advisor to the management of Polish Television, remarked on this. „If someone had been preparing that flight, and most probably there had been different people preparing it, then it must have been someone’s idea that it should happen that way. I cannot see any other explanation. Someone had been interested in this having happened. The chief of staff… commanders… impossible. Someone had thought about it. We aren’t a country of fools. Or an army of dimwits. We have both special forces and National Security Bureau. We have excellent generals nominated by NATO. It is not possible for all of them to have been possessed by such stupidity and to send the country’s most important persons in one and same plane.”, says Pietraszek.

Two visits

Many people ask themselves the question why there were two Katyn celebrations. The first one, on 7 April, with Prime Ministers Tusk and Putin taking part, and the would-be one on 10 April, attended by the Polish President.

Tusk, who had accepted Russia’s program of Katyn celebrations in February, 2010, was the main player  on the Polish side. It is worth reminding the following press announcement, made on 3 February by the Chancellery of Prime Minister of the Russian Federation: „Russia has taken initiative for a phone conversation between Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.  (…) During the conversation Vladimir Putin invited Donald Tusk to take part in anniversary celebrations in Katyn, where towards the end of the 30’s many Soviet citizens had died as a result of political repressions, during the 40’s Polish officers had been shot and later many soldiers of the Soviet Army had been killed by the Nazi occupants. The Polish Prime Minister gladly accepted the invitation”.

Putin is capable of everything”

Let’s notice that Prime Minister Tusk did not make efforts with Russian authorities to invite the Polish President to the same official celebration.

Could there have been something hidden behind the fact that Russia had submitted to Donald Tusk a program of ceremony and an invitation to Katyn, which he gladly accepted and thus agreed that there would be two separate anniversary celebrations in the Katyn Forest: one with the Prime Minister and the other with the President?

Romanian portal Global News, quoting sources close to NATO, points out that the trip to Katyn was the chance of a lifetime for Russia to change the politics of its western neighbor – an active NATO member, which would have American military bases, equipped with electronic weapons and electromagnetic systems, at the Russian border.

The operation itself, being a test of bravery for Soviet and Russian special forces, is referred to as »extermination of anti-Russian political and military leaders in the enemy country«”, Global News reports. According to the portal, immediately accusing the Polish pilots of human error was to serve as a disguise for the operation.

Wiktor Suworow, while reserved to admit that what happened in Smolensk was an assassination, leaves no illusions, however, that nothing can hold back Putin’s neo-imperialist urges and terrorism became widespread in Russia after the present Prime Minister took office. In Suworow’s opinion it is “the Russian services which organized acts of terror. The number of crimes is unparalleled. It applies mainly to the journalists who were regarded by Putin as his enemies (…) Putin is capable of everything” – he stresses. Kaczynski, as an ardent anti-communist, was an excellent target: he had played an important role in creating a chain of buffer countries around Russia. Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, tightening relations with Lithuania. And finally, it was him, not Tusk, who stood by Georgia during the Soviet aggression. It was at that time that he uttered these memorable words: by invading Georgia “Russia has shown her true face.” Putin does not forget such things.

The same motives for Kaczynski’s possible liquidation are pointed out by Israeli daily “Ha’aretz”, which wrote on April 12 that Lech Kaczynski had been one of the US’s most trusted partners in Europe and who had actively supported Ukraine and Georgia in their confrontation with the Kremlin.

The solidarity with Poland demonstrated by Russia after the catastrophe is viewed by the Israeli paper as a game of appearances, played in order to divert the world public opinion from the real causes of the tragedy in Smolensk.

Polish slates over Katyn

Reelection of Lech Kaczynski and victory of the Law and Justice (PiS) party in parliament elections would have been hard to swallow for Moscow, not only because the dead president was the most hated politician by Russian authorities and was perceived as a threat to Russia’s imperialist plans, but even more so because it would directly affect her economic interests.

Most notably, Gazprom and the Nord Stream gas pipeline. The latter was strongly opposed by the President and PiS, as an investment conflicting with Polish national interests.

Presidential advisors, like Piotr Naimski, who is responsible for energetic security, criticized the decision made by Tusk’s government to prolong the gas contract with Russia until 2037 on extremely unfavorable conditions, thus making Poland wholly dependent on Eastern gas deliveries.

Another issue has popped up in the last weeks: unconventional gas produced from slates, which have been found in Poland in huge quantities. American concerns were soon to begin drilling to find the slate deposits. If the estimates are confirmed, these reserves will eliminate Poland’s dependence on Russia.

The current balance of power regarding the world’s natural resources will change after reaching for the slate gas. In a special report Gazprom has recently announced that an increase in obtaining gas from unconventional sources in the US can radically change the whole world gas market and threaten strategic projects of this Russian concern, like developing the gigantic gas deposit called Shtokman, in the Barents Sea. The document also claims that the American gas market has been transformed from deficient to self-sufficient thanks to slate gas. In addition, an excess in liquefied natural gas (LNG) challenges the competitiveness of Russian gas in the European Union.

If Americans came to Poland in order to exploit the deposits, the country would also benefit and become self-sufficient in its natural gas supplies.

Especially that analysts from Wood Mackenzie have estimated the deposits of slate gas at over 1.4 trillion cubic meters (according to other estimates – between 1.4 and 3 trillion cubic meters). This would mean that it would be enough for at least 100 years, assuming that these resources would be used to cover all the country’s needs.

Julia Latynina, a well-known commentator followed this track in her article entitled “A smell of slate gas is wafting over Katyn”, which appeared in “Moscow Times” on 14 April 2010.

What if Poland became a gas exporter?” – asks Latynina, emphasizing that the next parliament elections would decide if Poland would become independent from Russian deliveries. Moscow knew about it too well. “One of the options would be the party of the Polish President, Lech Kaczynski. He was a zealous (…) anti-communist, a man who had experienced a personal tragedy connected with the Katyn massacre. He had appeared at the celebrations each year. As the other option we have the party of the Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a pragmatic who is ready to be friends with anyone but

Kaczynski. ”, claims the publicist.

Peaceful village*

After the Smolensk catastrophe, the responsibilities of the President were taken over by Bronislaw Komorowski, the current speaker of the Sejm (Polish parliament). He is a member of the Civic Platform party, which was hostile towards the President and the idea of building a sovereign state. There had been a couple of persons aboard Tu-154M whose disappearance may now make it easier for the Civic Platform to obtain majority power in the country and also, help the environments connected with the Military Information Services (WSI) to regain their influences.

Prognoses do not look bright for the Civic Platform in the next parliamentary elections in 2011. Instead of carrying out any reforms for 4 years, the Platform has become famous for the so called shipyard and gambling affairs, or making Poland dependent on Russian gas deliveries. The Platform needs success in this situation. Slawomir Skrzypek (chairman of the National Bank of Poland, who died in Smolensk catastrophe) had been thwarting the Platform’s plans to obtain 8 billion zloty from the bank.

Let’s also notice that it was Lech Kaczynski who had owned the Appendix to the report from WSI liquidation, which had been waiting for declassification and publication.

The document arises strong emotions among the Civic Platform members and its favorite for the next presidential elections, supported incidentally by ex-WSI lobby. These emotions are so strong that  discovering only a part of the Appendix was enough for Tusk’s services to carry out searches of members of the so called WSI Verification Commission and to arrest and harass journalist Wojciech Sumlinski. The report from WSI liquidation shows connections of many known politicians and state officials (including Bronislaw Komorowski) to WSI, whose officers had been trained in Moscow by Soviet Intelligence. The publication of the report could have disclosed even more information and  ultimately demythologize Komorowski, for example, who is running for presidency. On the fateful day of 10 April this knowledge, however, was buried with President Lech Kaczynski and his ministers – Aleksander Szczyglo and Wladyslaw Stasiak.

Documents concerning agents of Soviet Intelligence in WSI or those of Polish Security Service (SB) among politicians and state officials are also in the classified archives owned by the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), access to which had been guarded by the now dead Janusz Kurtyka.

Lech Kaczynski had been blocking the bill, passed in March with majority votes from the Civic Platform and the Left, which was to result in replacement of the IPN chairman with a candidate supported by opponents of the anti-communist screening program. He had announced to submit the bill to the Constitution Tribunal.

Now, Lech Kaczynski is dead. The obstacles are gone…

Julia M. Jaskólska
Piotr Jakucki

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Po przekroczeniu granicy rosyjskiej konwój z Jarosławem Kaczyńskim zmierzającym 10 kwietnia do Smoleńska na miejsce katastrofy miał zwolnić, a następnie krążyć po mieście. W tym czasie premier Donald Tusk rozmawiał z Władimirem Putinem. Według ustaleń Polskiego Radia, trasę z Witebska do granicy białorusko-rosyjskiej konwój z Jarosławem Kaczyńskim, który zmierzał do Smoleńska, by zidentyfikować ciało prezydenta RP, pokonał bardzo szybko. Tuż po przekroczeniu granicy rosyjskiej zwolnił. Pokonanie około stu kilometrów z Witebska na miejsce tragedii zajęło blisko trzy godziny. – Bardzo sprawnie dojechaliśmy do białorusko-rosyjskiej granicy. Tam 40 minut sprawdzano nam dokumenty, mimo że mieliśmy paszporty dyplomatyczne. W drodze do Smoleńska eskortowała nas już rosyjska milicja. Jechaliśmy bardzo wolno, około 25-30 km/h - relacjonował jeden z członków delegacji Adam Bielan. Delegacja pytała konwojujących milicjantów o powody tak wolnej jazdy. W odpowiedzi mieli usłyszeć, że takie mają rozkazy. Jeszcze przed Smoleńskiem pojazd z prezesem PiS został wyprzedzony przez kolumnę z premierem Tuskiem, który na Białorusi wylądował kilkadziesiąt minut po Kaczyńskim. Potem autokar z Jarosławem Kaczyńskim jeszcze krążył po mieście. W tym czasie premierzy Polski i Rosji odbyli spotkanie. Informacje te miał zweryfikować Piotr Paszkowski, rzecznik Ministerstwa Spraw Zagranicznych.

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